Russia is preparing to station up to 115,000 troops near the borders of NATO’s Nordic and Baltic members after the war in Ukraine, according to several European military and intelligence officials.
The assessment, reported by Danish broadcaster DR, draws on satellite imagery and interviews with military and intelligence officials from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland.
It also incorporates threat assessments from NATO exercises focused on defending the Baltic states and Poland.
Satellite imagery reviewed by former Finnish military intelligence officer Marko Eklund shows Russia expanding existing military facilities and developing new infrastructure along its borders with Northern and Eastern Europe.
According to Eklund, Moscow could move combat-experienced units from other parts of its territory to the border region within weeks if required.
Danish Major General Brian Nissen, who would command a NATO force of up to 150,000 troops tasked with defending the Baltic states and parts of Poland in the event of an attack, said any future war with Russia would involve multiple domains.
“It will take place on land, in the air, at sea, in space and in cyberspace,” he said, describing such a conflict as “a war of existence” that would test whether “our way of life and our democracy can survive.”
Baltic Region Seen as Potential Flashpoint
Officials interviewed by DR said there is no indication that Moscow has decided to attack NATO countries.
However, they warned that military planners increasingly view the Baltic Sea region as the most likely area for a future confrontation because of its strategic importance and proximity to Russian territory.
Moreover, officials said Russia is not only expanding forces near NATO’s borders but also restructuring its military.
Moscow is reportedly replacing some brigade-sized units of roughly 4,000 troops with divisions that can field around 10,000 personnel and sustain larger combat operations.
Several Nordic intelligence and military officials argued that the next one to three years could be a critical period, as Russia continues high-rate military production while European NATO members work to rebuild stockpiles, expand defense industries, and address capability gaps.
